Today’s Monterey Department of Public Health (DPH) report saw another big increase in cases:
The orange line that’s heading skyward is the seven day moving average. The dotted orange line is a linear fit to the data. It looks like we are in a period of at-least-exponential growth. The doubling time numbers below reinforce that.
Actually, for the past month or do, we have been experiencing greater than exponential growth. If we were simply in exponential growth, the doubling rate would stay constant. Instead, it is falling, and is currently less than 16 days.
For the last two days, the testing rate has been high:
The orange line is the 7-day moving average. Here’s the ratio of positive tests to tests performed:
The positivity rate has begun to fall, but it is still a good deal higher than it was a month ago.
Turning to the statewide daily case numbers, we see a continuation of the linear increase that we’ve lived with for the past two months.
But deaths are falling:
The combination of those two things means that the death rates (deaths per confirmed case, or CFR) are falling even faster:
The death date is now running at somewhat over 2%. Some of that is due to better care, but I think the majority of it is due to an undercounting of cases in the early days when testing was extremely limited. Nationwide, we see the same kind of trend, but the death rates are higher:
I think we are still undercounting cases materially, so I expect the CFR to fall further, even in the absense of care improvements.