Yesterday I reported on the current doubling rate of Covid-19 confirmed cases in Monterey County.
Here’s the curve with today’s data added:
I was surprised to read this in yesterday’s Monterey County Weekly:
More than the number of cases, Moreno is watching the doubling rate, a critical threshold for epidemiologists. The doubling rate in Monterey County is now 22 days, meaning that as large as today’s numbers seem, we can expect to have about 2,000 confirmed cases by July 7. As long as the doubling rate remains slower than 20 days, Moreno said that’s a “reasonable.”
Ignoring the confusing last sentence — a reasonable what? — It doesn’t seem that Moreno is using the same numbers that I calculated from the Monterey County DPH’s own postings on their website.
Here’s the last three weeks with the numbers added to the graph:
We haven’t seen doubling slower than 20 days for more than two weeks. I am using the data each case is reported as the date of occurrence.
If we are in exponential growth, a 21-day doubling time means we’ll have 2000 cumulative cases in three weeks, 4000 in six weeks, 8000 in nine weeks, 16000 in twelve weeks, and 32000 in 15 weeks. At anywhere near the present hospitalization rate, the County’s medical facilities will not be able to handle that kind of caseload. I sincerely hope that we are not going to see exponential growth over the next few months.