The Bleeding Edge

Today, the Monterey County DPH reported the worst single-day case increase (by reporting day) yet: 123 new cases. The trend looks bad: The cases were mostly in Salinas, who had 60% of them> South County had 26%, and Peninsula/Big Sur and North County each had 7%. The … [Read more...]

The headline is the big news, but there should be an asterisk. Only five cases were reported the day before, so the average of the two days is a bit higher than we've been seeing. And yesterday's numbers were driven by increased testing. I'll explain: See that dot way … [Read more...]

You've most likely seen the news reports: nationwide we're experiencing a spike in Covid-19 confirmed cases, but not -- so far -- in deaths. We are testing more, but that doesn't explain the increase in cases. I've been looking at the national numbers as well as the California … [Read more...]

Some better news today from the Monterey County Department of Public Health. 22 new cases, down from the numbers we have been seeing, in spite of testing being up. It's too soon to tell if this is a blip or a trend. Three of the last four days have had historically high … [Read more...]

Today's Monterey Department of Public Health (DPH) report saw another big increase in cases: The orange line that's heading skyward is the seven day moving average. The dotted orange line is a linear fit to the data. It looks like we are in a period of at-least-exponential … [Read more...]