Monterey County cases continue to climb:
But the doubling time is getting longer, which means were falling behind exponential growth — a good thing.
But the testing positivity rate is climbing, which means we’re not testing enough:
The WHO recommends that the 7-day moving average be under 5%, and the California guidelines are under 8%. We are over 15%. The Monterey Public Health Department does not report 7-day moving averages, just the cumulative positivity rate. As you can see by comparing the orange and blue curves above, the two tell a far different story.
We don’t look good when compared to the state as a whole:
I don’t have a graph for it, but we in Monterey County are also falling behind on contact tracing. One standard metric says you should interview about 10 contacts for each case. Our cumulative number of cases is 4082, and we have interviewed cumulatively 10513 people, which means we’re only interviewing 2 and a half contacts for each case. Yesterday, we had80 new cases and interviewed 40 people — it was a Sunday, though.
In California, the cases continue their recent rise:
But hospitalizations may be flattening:
Deaths are higher than they’ve ever been. There were people saying when the case numbers began to spike that it was all because of increased testing, and the death totals wouldn’t go up. Unfortunately, that prediction was a failure.
Comparing the per-capita case loads in Monterey County, California, and the US: