The Bleeding Edge

My struggles with technology --- an homage to Jerry Pournelle

  • Site Home
  • Blog Home
  • Galleries
  • Contact
  • Underwater
  • The Last Word

Is California’s falling CFR mostly due to demographics?

July 12, 2020 By Jim Leave a Comment

The case fatality rate (CFR), the number of people who have died from the Covid-19 over the number of people whose infection has been confirmed, has been falling for months. The demographics of the infected patients has been changing, too.

The percentage of infected people over 65 is now close to a third of what it was in late April. Could that explain most of the CFR decrease? I ran a test, assuming the following CFR’s:

  • 0-17 — 0.05%
  • 18-49 — 2%
  • 50-64 — 4%
  • 65 and older — 17%

The results:

I didn’t try to optimize the fit by manipulating the CFRs for each cohort, but this is by no means definitive. On the other hand, it is suggestive. OF course, there have been other changes that could affect the CFR:

  • Improved treatment
  • Undercounting of cases varying as a function of time

Filed Under: The Bleeding Edge

← Caseload, positivity rises in California, Monterey County, and US Covid-19 and California Health care workers →

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

January 2021
S M T W T F S
 12
3456789
10111213141516
17181920212223
24252627282930
31  
« Oct    

Recent Posts

  • What’s a Covid-19 case?
  • October Covid-19 report
  • Apple Watch Series 5/6, iPhone X, 11 communications failure
  • Covid-19 criteria for reopening
  • California Covid-19 situation improves

Recent Comments

  • Robert Jay on Apple Watch Series 5/6, iPhone X, 11 communications failure
  • Jim H on UpdraftPlus/Dropbox problems
  • Bob on Caseload, positivity rises in California, Monterey County, and US
  • Erik Kaffehr on Caseload, positivity rises in California, Monterey County, and US
  • John sheets on Second Covid-19 wave in California?

Legal

  • Privacy Policy

Archives

Copyright © 2021 · Daily Dish Pro on Genesis Framework · WordPress · Log in